Core Strategy - Consultation Draft

Document Section Core Strategy - Consultation Draft Chapter 2: Visions and Objectives VIS 4: Nailsea Vision [View all comments on this section]
Comment ID 706241/CSCD/7
Respondent Nailsea Town Council [View all comments by this respondent]
Response Date 02 Mar 2010
Current Status Accepted
Comment
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

An analysis of demographic changes in Nailsea from 1991-2009 has identified the following important trends:
a) A rapid shift in the age balance of the population (see Trends chart below).
b) The trendline of the population shift suggests that in the next 15-20 years the number of residents in the 0-15 and the >75 groups will be the same, with the former group declining and the latter group increasing. In 10 years time more than 50% of the population with be 45 and older.
c) Whilst the size and proportion of the 16-24 age group has remained steady, most of these people are probably in full-time education. The concern is therefore that the majority of this group may be restricted from remaining in Nailsea due to employment and/or the availability and affordability of suitable housing. The key group in terms of families (i.e. those aged 25-44) are declining as rapidly as the 0-15 group.
d) The assumption is that without additional housing Nailsea's population will decline: this is based on average household size declining and the limited availability and affordability of properties for families with school-age children. However, an increase in dwellings for older people may maintain the population size but will increase the rate at which the age balance changes.

Population figures by age range
0-15 16-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75+ All ages
1991 3,912 2,026 5,297 3,902 1,194 899 17,230
2001 3,484 1,628 4,399 5,055 1,545 1,323 17,434
2009 2,639 1,935 3,714 4,999 1,685 1,570 16,542

Figures are derived from stats for Nailsea North and West and Nailsea East wards and also include The Elms, which is in Wraxall and Long Ashton ward. However, the residents of The Elms have a material impact on local services in Nailsea such as schools, health services, road usage and shopping.

Population percentages by age range
0-15 16-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75+ All ages
1991 22.7% 11.8% 30.7% 22.6% 6.9% 5.2% 100.0%
2001 20.0% 9.3% 25.2% 29.0% 8.9% 7.6% 100.0%
2009 16.0% 11.7% 22.5% 30.2% 10.2% 9.5% 100.0%




APPENDIX 2: SCHOOL ROLLS

An analysis of school rolls in Nailsea from 1990-2009 can be summarised as follows:
- 2 infant schools have closed following a decline in numbers (Greenslade: closed 31 August 1999. Four Oaks: closed 31 August 2003).
- The 2009 roll at Hannah More School is at a similar level to 1990 despite fluctuations during the period. The numbers at St Francis School have remained consistent.
- Golden Valley School has increased its roll by 7% (26 students), and Ravenswood School has increased by 55% (39 students).
- Grove Junior School's roll has reduced by 22% (86 students) during the period.
- Kingshill took over from Nailsea Junior School in September 1999. The roll has fallen by 40% (108 students) in the 20 year period.
- Nailsea School has shown an increase of 5% (56 students), but has declined by 11% (152 students) since peaking in 2006.
- The total number of students has declined by 9.6% from 3,024 to 2,733 (291).





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